Confident Fed equates to further (limited) Treasury sell-off and USD upside but watch for China and risk aversion

Last night’s Fed rate hike, with more balanced that expected accompanying material, seems to have given the green light to further limited (short-end US) yield rises and consequent USD dollar strength over the next few months. The latter will likely supported by gradual increased pricing of policy divergences – the Fed seems confident in anticipating … More Confident Fed equates to further (limited) Treasury sell-off and USD upside but watch for China and risk aversion

Caution in Threadneedle Street: weak pay growth supportive near-term but watching the Fed carefully

This morning’s surprisingly-weak UK pay data provide further ammunition to the dovish MPC members and the growing sense that the Committee really is in no rush to start raising interest rates and want to try and differentiate themselves from the Fed. That said, the recent UK pay growth slowdown has limited implications for inflation under … More Caution in Threadneedle Street: weak pay growth supportive near-term but watching the Fed carefully

Don’t look back in anger: from ECB to Fed via oil weakness

With a week having passed since the ECB’s surprising “hawkish ease” it’s useful to take stock of what it all means for ECB monetary policy, the EA economy and financial markets.  And how this fits into an environment featuring an oil price collapse (and commodity weakness more generally) together with anticipation of the likely 16 … More Don’t look back in anger: from ECB to Fed via oil weakness