This post considers whether sterling’s post-April rally represents an overshoot and dissects the May Inflation Report’s treatment of Brexit-affected asset prices. The main points are: Sterling has, as I expected, continued to closely track betting market Brexit odds, recently down to the low-20%’s from over 40% in April, but has also been supported by the continued … More How fragile is sterling’s recent bounce? Should MPC have also adjusted OIS rates in May?
This post dissects the Euro Area macro-financial and policy situation in advance of the 2 June ECB meeting. The main points are: Draghi will likely focus on the positive prospective effects of their imminent credit bazookas (TLTRO II and CSPP) including highlighting the positive anticipatory impact of CSPP on bond issuance and spreads. That said, … More ECB preview: Awaiting the credit easing bazooka but several dark clouds persist
The following previews Thursday’s BoE May Inflation Report (IR) and MPC minutes. Overall MPC seems unlikely to give a strong policy steer, given the proximity of the EU referendum vote. So rate and FX market impacts are likely to be limited – although probably dovish at the margin (and perhaps a bigger FX impact) despite … More MPC Preview: detailing Brexit uncertainty impacts, downplaying forecast inflation overshoot