UK trade to party like it’s 1992? Watch out cyclical and structural headwinds

This post argues that cyclical and structural factors represent headwinds to the hope that the UK is set to emulate the post-ERM depreciation period and enjoy a net exports bonanza in the wake of sterling’s recent sharp depreciation. The main points are: The post-ERM story is more nuanced than often reported. While UK nominal exports … More UK trade to party like it’s 1992? Watch out cyclical and structural headwinds

Sterling becomes unlovable on medium-term Brexit macro worries: further weakness likely

I know I’m unloveable, you don’t have to tell me Oh, message received loud and clear, loud and clear The Smiths, Unloveable A month ago I argued  (see here) that better near-term UK activity data shouldn’t be interpreted as showing that the UK was out of the woods in it’s difficult Brexit journey. Rather, I … More Sterling becomes unlovable on medium-term Brexit macro worries: further weakness likely