Trump’s impossible trinity likely resolved by dollar strength but potential bumpy ride

This piece discusses dollar propsects in light of it’s 2017 retracement and the impossible trinity of fiscal expansion, independent US monetary policy and dollar jawboning which the Trump adminstration seems to be pursuing (alongside prospects for US and foreign monetary policy).  If Trump eventually delivers a substantial fiscal expansion the impossible trinity seems most likely … More Trump’s impossible trinity likely resolved by dollar strength but potential bumpy ride

Poor UK Net Export-Inflation Tradeoffs Following Sterling’s Depreciation

Recent positive UK data surprises have caused economists to revise up UK growth forecasts and BoE Governor Carney recently hinted that the February Inflation Report would follow suit. Despite that, my argument from last October that UK net exports were likely to disappoint, even with sterling’s sharp depreciation, has proved accurate thus far (Q3 UK … More Poor UK Net Export-Inflation Tradeoffs Following Sterling’s Depreciation

ECB preparing to fight the FED and overly optimistic on lending dynamics reinforces likely EUR downsides

The headlines from last week’s ECB press conference were dominated by the ECB’s €900m increase in Greek ELA, the potential for Greek bonds to be included in ECB QE and the apparent overall commitment to keep Greece in the Euro. But that seems to have allowed more important developments to have pass under the radar: … More ECB preparing to fight the FED and overly optimistic on lending dynamics reinforces likely EUR downsides