Fade hawkish MPC minutes: contrary to MPC three judgements plus downside risks to UK consumption & net exports

This piece argues that last week’s susprising-hawkish MPC vote and minutes do not represent a dramatic change in the picture for UK monetary policy.  The limits to the MPC approach of looking through temporarily above-target inflation, driven by sterling’s post-referendum depreciation, are further from being reached than the minutes-related headlines suggest. So the limited rebounds … More Fade hawkish MPC minutes: contrary to MPC three judgements plus downside risks to UK consumption & net exports

February Inflation Report Preview: Focus on Consumers and Inflation Expectations

This piece previews Thursday’s Bank of England Feburary Inflation Report and MPC minutes, where the key issues will be: (i) how much longer can consumption continue to be the single engine generating UK growth?; and (ii) MPC remain tolerant of prospective above-target inflation? The main points are: MPC will as expected by the market undoubtedly … More February Inflation Report Preview: Focus on Consumers and Inflation Expectations

Poor UK Net Export-Inflation Tradeoffs Following Sterling’s Depreciation

Recent positive UK data surprises have caused economists to revise up UK growth forecasts and BoE Governor Carney recently hinted that the February Inflation Report would follow suit. Despite that, my argument from last October that UK net exports were likely to disappoint, even with sterling’s sharp depreciation, has proved accurate thus far (Q3 UK … More Poor UK Net Export-Inflation Tradeoffs Following Sterling’s Depreciation

Yen strength likely with further BoJ ill communication, asymmetric risks

This post previews Wednesday’s highly-uncertain but very important Bank of Japan policy meeting, featuring the Comprehensive Assessment of monetary policy. Overall, there’s a strong risk of BoJ disappointing dovish market expectations thereby generating Yen upside and a bond market sell-off (although the FOMC decision will also impact) and smaller market moves are likely should the BoJ try to … More Yen strength likely with further BoJ ill communication, asymmetric risks

Yellen at Jackson Hole: Don’t Rock the Boat?

This post previews Janet Yellen’s 26 August Jackson Hole appearance, and the likely market implications.  The main points are: Recent FOMC mixed messages – Dudley’s/Fisher’s recent small hawkish drift versus Williamson’s/Bullard’s dovishness, reflecting the difficult issues confronting the Fed – underpin market confusion about Fed policy. Neverthless, markets remain sceptical about the likelihood of further US … More Yellen at Jackson Hole: Don’t Rock the Boat?

Brexit vote: where there is harmony may we bring discord (global concerns, UK recession, MPC rate cuts and further £ falls)

Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 election victory speech famously quoted St Francis of Assisi: “Where there is discord may we bring harmony, where there is error may we bring truth, where there is doubt may we bring faith, and where there is despair may we bring hope.” The decision to hold a UK EU membership referendum has … More Brexit vote: where there is harmony may we bring discord (global concerns, UK recession, MPC rate cuts and further £ falls)

ECB preview: Awaiting the credit easing bazooka but several dark clouds persist

This post dissects the Euro Area macro-financial and policy situation in advance of the 2 June ECB meeting. The main points are: Draghi will likely focus on the positive prospective effects of their imminent credit bazookas (TLTRO II and CSPP) including highlighting the positive anticipatory impact of CSPP on bond issuance and spreads. That said, … More ECB preview: Awaiting the credit easing bazooka but several dark clouds persist

Current account and growth concerns add to sterling’s Brexit worries: further weakness ahead

Sterling has, as I previously anticipated here and here, continued to depreciate as Brexit uncertainties have become increasingly priced. The TWI is now down 11% since November (GBPJPY down over 19%) while implied volatilities and risk reversals have continued rising.  But Brexit effects have more recently been reinforced by renewed concerns about the UK’s current … More Current account and growth concerns add to sterling’s Brexit worries: further weakness ahead

Draghi fires credit-easing bazooka but undermines market impact

The ECB today vindicated my arguments for an aggressive broad monetary policy easing: rate cuts, QE expansion and credit easing at very attractive rates exceeded market expectations but were more in line with my views (I’d hoped for a 20bp deposit rate cut, accompanied by tiering of interest rates, rather than the whole rate corridor … More Draghi fires credit-easing bazooka but undermines market impact

Yellen will likely find it difficult to calm the sum of the markets fears: fixed income rally and JPY strength to extend

Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony occurs at a time of considerable uncertainty about the global economy and substantial financial market volatility.  Oil price and equity price falls, particularly bank stocks, have dominated recent moves as global government bonds have fallen up to 60bp since end-2016 (with 10 year JGBs turning notably negative) and the dollar … More Yellen will likely find it difficult to calm the sum of the markets fears: fixed income rally and JPY strength to extend

ECB under pressure from oil and EUR strength

The early 2016 China-induced financial market volatility, including oil prices hitting twelve-year lows below $30 and sharp equity price falls, reinforces my existing bias to eventual further ECB easing in 2016 (alongside other central banks becoming more dovish e.g. Carney’s comments today,  Bullard’s recent concerns about US inflation expectations and others like the Riksbank biased … More ECB under pressure from oil and EUR strength

Draghi “we will do what we must”: keeping up the downward EUR pressure

My previous post encouraged my readers to listen the Draghi and Praet’s dovish comments rather than think of recent easier financial conditions as a reason for the ECB to ease less than expected.  So Draghi’s powerful speech today reinforces my existing view that the ECB easing on 3 December is likely to exceed market expectations (although … More Draghi “we will do what we must”: keeping up the downward EUR pressure

ECB to deliver easing despite easing financial conditions: listen to Draghi and Praet

I argue below that the ECB seems likely to at least meet market expectations for easing on 3 December, despite EA financial conditions having recently eased. While tightening financial conditions contributed to the ECB turning dovish, the reverse doesn’t apply. The fragile EA macro situation means that ECB can’t take the risk of the recent … More ECB to deliver easing despite easing financial conditions: listen to Draghi and Praet

Fed hawkishly wakes up market but barriers remain to December hike and significant USD upside

The Fed today surprised financial markets by signalling clearly that were underpricing the likelihood of a December 2015 rate hike, which now seems very much on the table although we will be in a very data dependent world over the next seven weeks. This may provide a fillup for the policy divergence driven USD upside … More Fed hawkishly wakes up market but barriers remain to December hike and significant USD upside

Draghi throws door wide open to December rate cut, putting ECB credibility on the line

Draghi today exceeded already dovish market expectations of further ECB easing – explicitly signalling that further easing was on the agenda for December, that a further depo rate cut was no longer verboten and revealing that some members played with the idea of easing today. Overall his message that ECB policy is one of “work … More Draghi throws door wide open to December rate cut, putting ECB credibility on the line